Navigation auf uzh.ch
Navigation auf uzh.ch
Global food security could be severely affected by a marked decline in crop diversity due to future changes in temperature, precipitation and drought, according to a study recently published in Nature Food and co-authored by GIUZ.
Global warming is already reshaping our daily lives, with storms, floods, wildfires and droughts occurring worldwide. As temperatures continue to rise, a third of global food production could be at risk. Now, a new study in Nature Food offers a more precise picture of exactly where and how warming will affect our ability to grow food.
A research team involving the University of Zurich, Aalto University, Finland and the University of Göttingen, Germany studied how future changes in temperature, precipitation and aridity will impact the growing conditions of 30 major food crop species across the globe.
Low-latitude regions face considerably worse consequences than mid- or high-latitude areas. Depending on the level of warming, up to half of the crop production in low-latitude areas could be at risk as climate conditions become unsuitable for production. At the same time, these regions – mainly in Africa and South Asia – would also see a large drop in crop diversity.
Changes vary not only by latitude but also by elevation. At higher elevations, above 2,500 metres, the loss of diversity affects only a few crop areas, mainly due to increasing drought. However, these high-elevation regions account for only 0.6% of the global area under food crops, compared with 86% in low-elevation regions below 800 metres. A similar picture emerges for potential new areas suitable for food crop cultivation. "To a small extent, higher elevations may become climatically more favorable for crops under warming, but any small gains at higher elevations can in no way compensate for the substantial losses in other regions", says Daniel Viviroli, hydrologist and co-author of the study.
Warming will severely decrease the amount of global cropland available for staple crops – rice, maize, wheat, potato and soybean – which together account for over two-thirds of the world’s food energy intake. Other detrimental factors such as the increasing frequency of extreme weather events or the rise in pest infestations are not yet included in this model.
"In many low-latitude regions, particularly in Africa, irrigation or better fertilizer supply could increase yields and help minimize losses. However, negative impacts on water availability and quality as well as on soils must also be carefully considered", adds Viviroli.
Overall, global warming increases the uncertainty of future food security. Measures beyond those currently in place, such as selection of resilient crops and novel breeding, are essential. While low-latitude regions need to enhance their agricultural production and move closer to its full potential, mid- and high-latitude regions need flexibility to adapt as climate change shifts crop patterns. Both mitigating climate change and adapting to its effects are paramount, as impacts affect all regions through the globalized food system. Collaborative efforts are essential to address these challenges and ensure resilience in the face of a changing climate.
Heikonen, S., Heino, M., Jalava, M., Siebert, S., Viviroli, D., Kummu, M. Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes. Nat Food (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w
World’s critical food crops at imminent risk from rising temperatures
Media Relase of Aalto University, 04.03.2025
Title image: Pexels | Tom Fisk
